GPS poll: Can May win in SGI?
Greenpartystrategy.ca commissioned a public opinion survey for Elizabeth May’s riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands (SGI). We’ll release the results over the coming days in a two part series entitled ‘The proverbial good news, bad news,’ because party members are sure to find a bit of each in the results.
We’ll finish the series with some local and national observations of how the campaign is unfolding so far.
But first a little context about polls in general.
A Kodak moment
A poll is a snapshot taken at a specific point in time; one poll may make a nice picture for the mantle piece, but without ongoing polling it’s difficult to identify and measure the trends, or do much about them in the heat of a campaign.
It’s why one line in Andrew MacLeod’s recent article for GPS (Can Elizabeth May win in SGI?) stood out: “And the Greens have not done any polling in the riding for over a year, Fryer said, so it is difficult to know whether their campaign efforts are working.”
Imagine investing hundreds of thousands of dollars in a campaign and not monitoring its effectiveness. At the very least the party has a right to know that its investment is reaping results, but the candidate also needs to know if her campaign – and message – is resonating with voters.
And this is one of the biggest dangers for the party’s campaign in SGI as our poll shows.
The swimsuit competition
Another issue with polls is that most everyone fixates on one result. You know that question: “If a general election were held today what political party….”
And by the way we did ask. It’s a tight three way race.
But MacLeod’s article also gave a benchmark to measure the campaign’s success. Before May announced her intent to seek the SGI nomination she stood at 33 per cent in the Harris-Decima survey commissioned by the party, as did Gary Lunn. More on this benchmark and current standings later in the series.
Yet, polls are about far more than who’s in front. They’re about demographic breakouts, voter issues and the overall firmness of a candidate’s support relative to other candidates. Fixate on the swimsuit competition and you’ll overlook a poll’s real value to a campaign.
However, months out from an election it’s also easy to support a candidate as a way to cheer them on, but when choosing a government is actually only days away that support may wander as it has done for the Greens in the past. Historically, thirty per cent of the party’s pre-election national support in most polls evaporates in the closing days of an election.
So the message is simple: don’t cherry pick results. Read the whole poll, because as the headline says, there’s some good news and some bad news.
There’s also a margin of error to account for and some significant differences of opinion between residents of the Saanich Peninsula and those of the Gulf Islands.
A metric, not the metric
Today, like it or not politics are increasingly driven by polls. They offer a necessary, cold reality check on over confidence and hubris. They may also point a path to victory.
A serious, well-funded campaign that doesn’t poll is tying its hands behind its back. Imagine setting out on a road trip and not investing in a map or a gps.
Polls help determine objectively the strength of a voter’s support towards their preferred candidate, where the support is located, what that support may look like demographically, what issues to focus upon, and where the candidate can find the necessary support to win.
But polling numbers are only a part of a successful campaign.
Have campaign messages been tested before they’re delivered? Are they relevant to local voters or just the candidate? Because once spending limits kick in during the election, there’s little that a campaign can do to fix errors.
For instance, according to the GPS poll, the number one issue in SGI is the economy at 34.0 per cent. The environment is second at 15.3 per cent; however, taxes were the most important issue for 6.3 per cent and jobs 4.0 per cent.
Combined economic issues, jobs and taxes are the number one issue for 44.3 per cent of the respondents, compared to only 15.3% for the environment.
Generally, successful candidates are those who speak to the issues that are relevant to local voters. As former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Tip O’Neill once said: “all politics are local.”
But at the end of the day, victory is spelt GOTV. Without a strong, effective and experienced EDA with not dozens, but hundreds of volunteers, great polling numbers won’t buy a candidate a ticket to Ottawa. More on this in the last installment of the series.
So the final message? Polls are one metric in a winning campaign. Without a solid organization on the ground, all the identified supporters and best wishes in the world are meaningless.
Next: The good news: May can win
Dermod Travis is former Director of Communications for the Green Party of Canada and organized the Green Party's 2006 National Convention
Comments
Fantastic
Unbelievable that this team put a poll in the field, which company did you use?
Excellent writing on how to use and read a poll as well, great set up Dermod (and GPS team). Keep up the good work.
-Rob Routledge
mays chances
Sorry but in my mind her chances are extremely slim and grim.
All kinds of things come up in an actual campaign.
Credibility,honesty the candidates integrity.
I am sorry but not all the horses nor their objectives have been exposed yet and this poll is to me meaningless.
Lets face it if this were really about may getting into parliament she could/would have years ago in a ndp or liberal riding if she were an actual leader or even truly green.
Dawn Blacks in New West Minister would have worked on very many levels to accomplish this and is merely only one of many examples.
This is now not about that...sorry not even close.
Many things will come to pass first...best to not place much in the poll I would say as we are not in an election.
Cheers
GPS poll: Can May win in
Rob is quite right that there is some useful information in Dermod's article. The speculation(s) are just that. I'm not a fan of the blogosphere and I'll try not to be too obtuse.
1) My credentials. I've lived in and around the riding for 40 years.
2) I am an experienced and seasoned political campaigner with a pretty good track record over 4 decades. True,I didn't beat John Manley when I ran in Ottawa South(for the NDP) but we did defeat the sitting Conservative MP.In Nanaimo-Alberni (2008 election)we grew the vote to over 12% and beat the Liberals. It's almost embarassing to admit that we did that with VERY little money,members and volunteers.
3) For 8 months I was campaign Manager for Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf Islands. My belief is that even critics will give me some credit for putting the campaign team and strategy in place.
The campaign is doing polling, has done polling and has a pretty clear idea of exactly what has been happening throughout the campaign.I poll 24/7 in the community,in coffee shops,pubs,chinese cafes--any place where regular folk gather--doing that has made tracking our campaign's trajectory pretty easy. And,while we appreciate any and all advice,believe me, we have some fairly sophisticated private strategies in place of our own. Simply put, we do know what we are doing. We know the seat can be won and are planning to do just that. Your poll is going to help us with camouflage for one party at least--maybe two. The contribution is welcomed. At this point I just have to hope that our opposition doesn't read your blog. They seem to think we're as "green"as Dermod suggests and a thus they think we're"splitting the vote". As your poll will show it is those who plan a vote for the "Dippers" and the Libs that are splitting the vote. We want our campaign to be underestimated--thanks for your assistance with this.Much appreciated.
Good work, but who cares?
I am not buying into the idea that the only purpose of the GPC is to elect E May in SGI.
Having a single MP - sitting as an Independent, BTW, since the Greens need eight seats to be an official party - will not advance the party in some magical fashion. It is lazy politics to concentrate on one riding, rather than 308.
So I don't care about polls on the subject.
John O.
true
My appreciation of the article is in the way it teaches to approach polling - that there is a way of getting information for it that is more valuable than what Dermod refers to as the 'swimsuit' competition. Outside of that, I imagine that the value to the efforts of electing Elizabeth is (yet another) reminder that this has to be a campaign based in identifying a staggeringly large number of supporters and then getting them out to vote.
-Rob
To John O
May in SGI is a top priority, but not the party's only purpose. If that were the only purpose then May would not continue touring the country supporting growth in other ridings; ditto for Carr and now Laraque. You may feel too much emphasis is being put on SGI but the evidence (not just stated goals, but actions) show that there is still effort on a 308 national basis.
The value of an "independent" Green MP could actually be huge. See, for example, the effect of a single Green MP and a former Green independent MP both just elected in Australia. Changes to the Speaker & QP rules, and quite possibly determining which party forms government - and there WILL be concessions made to the few who make it possible for that party to "win".
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/story/0,1,27669333-2702,00.html
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/they-asked--and-received-20100825-13s7b.html
Based on that example, I'd say it's pretty amazing what an independent or two can accomplish in a minority situation, and given current polling that puts the CPC and LPC neck-and-neck, one can imagine the same happening in Canada.
p.s. Official party status in the House is a somewhat shifting target - the number of MPs required has changed from as many as 12 or more to as few as 2. And all that does is give you some extra resources and standing. The media would always identify a lone Green MP as a Green, and her (or his) election would forever end the pernicious "Greens can't ever get elected" meme. That feeling is one of the critical obstacles which retards the 308 riding-by-riding growth you crave. It's all connected.
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